Objective: To evaluate the ability of routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) use measures to predict clinical work units at increased risk of burnout and potentially most in need of targeted interventions. Methods: In this observational study of primary care physicians, we compiled clinical workload and EHR efficiency measures, then linked these measures to 2 years of well-being surveys (using the Stanford Professional Fulfillment Index) conducted from April 1, 2019, through October 16, 2020. Physicians were grouped into training and confirmation data sets to develop predictive models for burnout. We used gradient boosting classifier and other prediction modeling algorithms to quantify the predictive performance by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Results: Of 278 invited physicians from across 60 clinics, 233 (84%) completed 396 surveys. Physicians were 67% women with a median age category of 45 to 49 years. Aggregate burnout score was in the high range (≥3.325/10) on 111 of 396 (28%) surveys. Gradient boosting classifier of EHR use measures to predict burnout achieved an AUC of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.48 to 0.77) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.29 (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.66). Other models’ confirmation set AUCs ranged from 0.56 (random forest) to 0.66 (penalized linear regression followed by dichotomization). Among the most predictive features were physician age, team member contributions to notes, and orders placed with user-defined preferences. Clinic-level aggregate measures identified the top quartile of clinics with 56% sensitivity and 85% specificity. Conclusion: In a sample of primary care physicians, routinely collected EHR use measures demonstrated limited ability to predict individual burnout and moderate ability to identify high-risk clinics.
